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II. Main Environment and Factors Influencing Current Power
Supply and Demand
Power industry is a basic industry in national economy. Power
supply and demand directly condition economic development while
the economic development situation has immediate impact on power
supply and demand. At present, the main factor influencing power
supply and demand are the domestic and overseas economic
environment and energy market environment and factors like
environment for reforms and policy.
Seen from international economic environment, the global
economic situation tends to look up when the American economy
picks up. After slow development and even negative growth in
three successive seasons, the 30 member states of Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation Organization have a 0.9% growth rate in GDP
fort the first time in the first season of year 2002. Thereinto,
the USA and Japan have a growth of 5.6% and 1.4% respectively
while the 12 countries in European Union only have a growth rate
of 0.2%. But in the second season the growth in American economy
falls again to merely 1.1% and international economic situation
tends to be strained.
Seen from domestic economic environment, at the end of year 2001
and at the beginning of year 2002, some state departments and
research institutes hold prudential attitude towards economic
growth this year, predicting a 7% or less growth rate for this
year¡¯s economic development. The actual situation in the first
half of this year is better than the common anticipation with a
GDP of 4.5536 trillion Yuan, increased by 7.8%. Thereinto, the
GDP growth is 7.6% in the first season and 8% in the second
season. Our power supply and demand is established in domestic
demand. Industrial production and sale directly influence power
supply and demand while the three factors that influence
economy, that is, investment, consumption and export, all have
impact on power supply and demand. In the aspect of investment,
the social fixed investment is 1.4462 trillion Yuan in the first
half of this year, increased by 21.5% and the growth rate
increased by 6.4 percentage points. Thererinto, investment on
real estate grows by 32.9%, collective investment by 15.8%,
individual investment by 19.4%, all obviously higher than
corresponding growth rate in year 2001. The contract value of
foreign investment reaches USD 44 billion increased by 31.5%,
and the actual utilization of direct foreign investment is USD
24.6 billion, increased by 18.7%. In the aspect of consumption,
the total consumer retail is 1.9448 trillion Yuan in the first
half of this year, increased by 8.6%. Thereinto, urban
consumption grows by 9.7% while rural consumption grows by only
6.7%, which indicates a comparative backward growing capacity
for rural consumption. And in the aspect of export, the total
import and export value is USD 270.7 billion, increased by
12.3%. Thereinto, the growth rate is 14.1% for export and 10.4%
for import and the trade surplus is USD 13.4 billion. The growth
in foreign trade is mainly pushed by the export of mechanical
and electric products and audio and video equipments and the
parts and attachments. The export of mechanical and electrical
products accounts for 35.65% of total export from January to May
with a growth rate as high as 30.3%, which is not predicted at
the beginning.
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