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III. Characteristics of Power Supply and Demand and Factors
Influencing It in the First Half Year
1. Characteristics of Power Supply and Demand
According to above-mentioned power supply and demand and the
inter-network power exchange, the national power supply and
demand in the first half year has the following characteristics.
First, unreasonable power source in part areas, that is,
overmuch proportion of hydropower without fine accommodating
capability causing inadequate production capability in low water
period, is the main reason for power limitation in Central China
and Sichuan-Chongqing area (Sichuan and Hunan) in the first half
of this year.
Second, the growth rate of peak load continuously exceeds that
of power consumption. With the increase of air-conditioner
number in building and establishments and the rate of residents¡¯
air-conditioner ownership, the peak load in provinces is
increasingly more sensitive to temperature, and the gap between
crest and trough becomes greater. According to survey, the power
load to lower temperature by air-conditioner has already reached
3 million kw in Beijing, accounting for 38% of the total load in
Beijing area. Thereinto, industrial load accounts for 9.6%,
commercial load 25.5%, facilities load 34.1%, household load
21.7% and other load 9.1%. And the facilities load is in the
direction of continuous growth.
Third, the faster power demand than power supply within the area
is one of the major reasons for the short power supply in rush
hours in Guangdong.
Third, 1/3 areas, mainly east areas with comparatively developed
economy, have basic balanced power supply and demand. Some
areas, such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, may have short supply in
specific periods, but the duration is quite short. Power supply
in 2/3 areas is relatively abundant.
2. Main Influencing Factors on Power Supply and Demand
There are many influencing factors on power supply and demand,
but the major ones are as the follows. We will make special
analysis on temperature factor.
Impetus of Market Demand
Under the influence of recovering global economy, China has a
fine opening of national economy, which keeps quite fast growth
in stableness and therefore pushes the power demand. This is
mainly showed by: first, the faster growth of industrial
production. Total state-owned industrial enterprises and
non-state-owned industrial enterprises with an annual sale over
5 million Yuan create 1.446 trillion Yuan added value, increased
correspondingly by 11.7%, and industries of different ownerships
have all-round development. The telecommunication equipments
manufacturing and transportation equipments manufacturing
becomes the leading force in pushing the rapid industrial
growth; second, the fast developing fixed investment. The
investment in the second industry, which can push power demand
in large scale, is greatly enhanced by 25.3%. The investments of
all economic types grow fast and investment in real estate
development has a strong increasing trend. Third, sale in
domestic market is basically stable with low market price, and
residents¡¯ consumption confidence gets stronger to certain
degree. The growth in resident income speeds up and the domestic
consumer¡¯s market keeps stable, plus the completion of
transformation of part urban and rural electric networks.
Fourth, growth in foreign trade speeds up and the continuous
fast growth in foreign capital utilization also makes up part of
the influence caused by falling export. Rapid and persistent
economic development leads the fast growth in social power
consumption by 8%. The growth in industrial power consumption
reaches 9.2%, becoming the major force in pushing power
consumption growth in this round.
Continuous Development of Highly Power-consuming Industries
Production of highly power-consuming products has quite great
impact on Chinese power demand. In the first half of this year,
the growth rates of finished steel products, pig iron, raw coal,
steel, paper-making, cement, soda ash and chemical fertilizer
are increased to some extent compared with those of last year,
while the growth of ten kinds of non-ferrous metal and plate
glass slows down and production of ferroalloy witnesses negative
growth. Thereinto, the growth rates of raw coal, steel and
chemical fertilizer grow by 10 percentage points, those of pig
iron and paper-making by 5 percentage points. In general, the
production of highly power-consuming products realizes fast
growth in the first half of year 2002.
However, ever since January 1st, 2002, Chinese highly
power-consuming industries will face the challenge of
large-scale reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures. China
will fulfill its promises on accession into WTO, that is,
reducing general tariff from 15.3% of last year to 12% and the
average tariffs reduction in crude oil and finished oil, paper
and paper products, chemical products, traffic vehicles,
machinery products and electronic products is over 25%. From
year 2002 on, quota system on products like steel will be
abolished and the import quota of chemical fertilizer,
automobile and sugar will greatly increase, so Chinese import
will grow rapidly. Due to tariff reduction and abolishment of
quota system, the steel import will grow by large scale.
On the whole, the power consumption in highly power-consuming
industries keeps growing in the first half of this year. The
contributory rate of power consumption in these industries to
growth in industrial power consumption is 47.7%, decreased by
1.8 percentage points. And the growing trend will slow down in
the latter half of the year.
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