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Power Consumption Analysis
I The social power consumption is 739.2 billion kwh in the first
half of this year, increased by 8.9%, and the growth increased
by 0.2%. Thereinto, power consumption in the first industry
increases by 2.5%, the growth falling back by 1.7 percentage
points. This is mainly because the serious drought in northern
China last year results in large-scale growth in power use for
irrigation and drainage, while rainfall is plenty this year,
which causes negative growth in power use for irrigation and
drainage. The power consumption in the second industry increases
by 9.2%, the growth increased by I%; the power consumption in
the third industry increases by 11.4, the growth increased by
3.3%; and household consumption increases by 7.0%, the growth
falling by 1.4%. The contributory rate to social power
consumption growth is respectively 1.1%, 74.2%, 14.4% and 10.3%
for the first industry, the second industry, the third industry
and household consumption.
Industrial power consumption, which accounts for 72.5% of total
power consumption, increases by 9.2% as the main force in
boosting rapid development in social power consumption. The
fields like non-ferrous metals smelting, rubber and plastic
products, medicine and textile all have a growth over 10% in
power consumption and power consumption in chemicals industry
grows most rapidly. At the same time, the third industries like
transportation, post and telecommunications, and commerce also
keep quite high growth rate of 13.3% and 14.9% respectively. But
the household power consumption, especially rural household
power consumption, which has been keeping rapid growth, has gone
down to rather great extent.
Power consumption keeps rapid growth in East and West China,
while that in central China falls to certain degree and negative
growth appears in power consumption in Northeast China. West
provinces like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Chongqing and Ningxia
are among the 11 provinces with a growth rate over 10% in power
demand, and the others are Hainan, Shandong, Fujian, Jiangxi,
Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu.
3. Power Investment
In the first half of this year, Chinese power industry
actualizes a fixed investment of 60.9 billion Yuan, increased by
1.1%. Thereinto investment on infrastructure construction is
40.8 billion Yuan, increased by 33.2% and the investment on
transformation of urban and rural electric networks is 2.6
billion Yuan, decreased by 36.7% with the first-phase projects
finished. The construction and transformation projects on urban
and rural electric networks are sped up and the investment
accounts for 93.4% of the total. The investment, final accounts
and acceptance check of the first-phase transformation project
on rural electric networks has been completed, and the
second-phase project has been fully extended. By the end of
June, 2,104,572 Yuan out of the planned 7,678,675-Yuan
investment has been actualized for the second-phase
transformation project of rural electric networks, accounting
for 27% of the planned investment.
4. Analysis on Operation of Electric Networks
Quite Great Regional Differentials Exist in Inter-network Power
Exchange
In the first half of year 2002, the general situation of power
supply and demand in China is basically in balance, but there
are big disparities in different areas. Power demand in Zhejiang
and Beijing is far greater than the supply in those areas, while
Shanxi, Guizhou and Sichuan all have power export in large
quantity.
Within the South China network, Guangdong and Guangxi
respectively receive from west networks a power quantity of 5.8
billion kwh and 2.6 billion kwh. Besides, Guangdong purchases a
power of 1.2 billion kwh when transporting 3.8 billion kwh to
Hong Kong and Macaw together. Ertan Power Station within
Sichuan-Chongqing electric network transports 1.15 billion kwh
to Chongqing and 3.65 billion kwh to Sichuan, while Sichuan
transports 2.22 billion kwh to Chongqing. Within North China
electric network, Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan purchase 5.37
billion kwh from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia while sending 0.48
billion kwh to south Hebei. In Central China network, the power
transported to He¡¯nan and Jiangxi is greatly reduced compared
with that in the same period last year, but power send to Hu¡¯nan
increases by large scale. In East China network, the net power
receiving in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the net power
export from Anhui all increase by large scale. In Northwest
China network, Shanxi and Gansu both have power export and the
power export from Qinghai decreases greatly while power received
in Ningxia increases to some extent.
Bottle-neck Exist in Structure of Local Electric Network
China has made considerable achievements in the transformation
of urban and rural electric networks in the past three years,
and the power transportation and distribution capability is
obviously enhanced in many provincial electric networks.
However, in local electric networks in coastal developed areas
in Southeast China, there still exists limitation on power use
due to unmatched capability of power conveyance and supply of
the power networks. It is predicted that the limitation on power
consumption in part areas like Zhejiang and Guangdong cannot be
removed fundamentally within this year.
In the aspect of inter-network power exchange, optimized
resources distribution is hard to be realized due to lack in
reasonable price system on power import and export. He¡¯nan and
Hubei in central China is in short of power while Jiangxi has
extra power supply, but because of lack in reasonable price
system on power import and export and the subsequent difficulty
in setting down power price acceptable for both sides, it is
hard to send out extra power and realize optimized resources
distribution.
5. Estimate of Present Situations on Power Supply and Demand
In the first half of this year, the general situation on power
supply and demand is still basically in balance in China.
However, since the summer, especially since July, most areas in
China suffer from unusual persistent high temperature. Beginning
from July 8, high temperature over 35oC goes on in Sichuan for 7
days. On July 12, the highest temperature in Yuncheng district
in Shanxi Province reaches 41oC. On July 14, Beijing and central
southern He¡¯nan witness a temperature as high as 40oC to 43oC.
So the power loan for sunstroke prevention grows sharply, and
the power loan and daily power production in many electric
networks all create historical new high. Limitation on power use
appears in Beijing, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shanxi
and Sichuan. Its characteristics are as the follows.
First, daily power consumption break the record. Persistent hot
weather results in sharp growth in power consumption on
sunstroke prevention¡£ In the first ten days of July£¬the national
daily power production is 4.403 billion kwh£¬and increases to 4.6
billion kwh on July 10£¬to 4.7 billion kwh on July 11£¬to 4.908
billion kwh on July 12 and to 5.184 billion kwh on July
15£¬increased by 0.781billion kwh compared with the daily
production in the first ten days of July and creating historical
records for several successive days¡£
Second£¬ power load creates new high in succession¡£Most
areas£¬including North China£¬ East China£¬ Central China£¬ Shanxi
in the northwest and southern area£¬witness unusual persistent
high temperature almost at the same time£¬which results in sharp
growth in power loan in major cities. The peak load and daily
production both create historical new high with a double-digit
growth rate in the electric networks in North China, Central
China, East China, Sichuan and Chongqiong and South China.
North China electric network. On July 12, the power load in
evening rush hour creates another historical new high in
Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan electric network, reaching 18.33
million kw, This exceeds the peak value of last year by 15.8
million kw with a growth rate of 16%, and it is higher by 9.28
million kw than the predicted peak load of this year. During the
three days from July 12 to July 15, the power load in Beijing
rises from 7.27 million kw to8.26 million kw, and that in
Tianjin and Qinhuangdao reaches 4.334 million kw and 0.641
million kw respectively, also setting new records. Because of
the insufficient capability of distribution network, blockade
situation appears, resulting in limitation in part periods in
North China. The peak load and daily power production in
Shandong network also create new record on July 15, reaching
0.34 billion kwh and 15.65 million kw in respect.
East China electric network. Ever since the middle of July,
persistent high temperature over 37oC appears in East China and
the power load rise sharply. The power load in East China
network reaches the all-time 49.865 million kw on July 15,
steeply increased by 6.9 million kw compared with that in year
2001 with an increase rate of 16.1%. The power production on
that very day is 0.997 bilion kwh and the gap between crest and
trough reach 16.67 million kw, increased by 4 million kw
compared with that of last year with a growth rate of 31.6%. The
minimal load rate is 66.6%. Because power load is overmuch
higher than the original estimate, power demand cannot be well
satisfied although the power stations in the networks work
stably and fully and the import has reached the utmost. So short
supply unusual in the past few years appears in the whole
network. On July 15, in order to meet the fast growing power
demand, Jiangsu electric network bought from Fujian network 0.1
million kw for 4 hours per day in three days at a high price of
0.6 Yuan per kwh.
Central China electric network. Since July 11, the four
provinces in central China are enclosed by high temperature, the
production and consumption load and power production and
consumption all creating historical new high. On July 15, the
consumption load in the whole network is 3.007 million kw and
the total power consumption reach 0.64 billion kwh, both higher
by over 10% than the maximum of last year. This is the first
time that daily consumption load and daily power consumption
exceed 30 million kw and 0.6 billion kwh respectively in the
Central China electric network. In the evening rush hour, many
major power stations generate power at full strength, and the
generators in the four provinces almost all reach the utmost. 12
large units with installed capability of 0.2 million kw are at
work in East Hubei electric network.
Sichuan-Chongqing electric network. The power production and
purchase in Sichuan electric network reach 0.17 billion kwh on
July 15, 30 million kwh higher than the utmost daily power
production and purchase. Thereinto, the hydropower is 0.16
billion kwh. The peak load reaches 8.75 million kw, 1.4 million
kw higher than that of last year with a growth rate of 19.6%,
creating a historical new high. Due to plenty rainfall in
rain-abundant season, hydropower plays a main role in Sichuan
electric network. From 12th to 16th of July, high temperature
appears in Chongqing and the load in Chongqing network grows
sharply, renewing records continuously. To July 16, the peak
load in Chongqing network has reached 3.69 million kw and the
daily consumption reaches 7.031 million kwh. The capacity that
can be exported from Chongqing network is only about 3.7 million
kw, 2.52 million kw of which is the provincial capacity and the
purchase from other provinces is 1.2million kw. The insufficient
capability in production and distribution results in inevitable
limitation on consumption in rush hours.
Guangdong electric network. Since April, high temperature and
drought cause rapid rise in peak load in Guangdong electric
network. On July 15, the peak load in Guangdong provincial
network reaches 1.94 million kw, 2.1 million kw higher than that
of last year. In order to relax the short supply situation, 22
cities including Dongguan, Shenzhen and Zhongshan have begun
power consumption in non-rush-hours, which to some degree
relaxes the short power supply at present. But inadequate power
source and insufficient capability in power transportation and
distribution network are the main reasons for the short supply
in Guangdong.
Third, the power exchange grows largely. To meet the fastigium
in the summer, the electric networks make optimized arrangement
for operation modes, make preparations for accidents, and put
priority to the examination and repair of generating units.
Before summer, the third-phase project in Eastward
transportation of west power in South China electric network,
that is, the AC power transportation and transformation project
from Tiansheng Bridge to Guangdong, is put to production on June
25, enabling the power transportation capability from South
China network to Guangdong to reach 3.7 million kw. The linking
line between Sichuan-Chongqing network and Central China network
also began production in May with a power transportation
capability of 0.6 million kw. At the same time, in order to
fully display the advantages of large electric networks, the DC
transportation from Gezhouba to East China, the linking line
from Fujian to East China and the linking line from
Sichuan-Chongqing to Central China have all reached full load in
the fastigium in summer according to planned arrangement. In
South China network, the west power transported to Guangdong
operates at a stable limitation of 3.5 million kw; the full load
in linking line from Northeast China network to North China is
0.6 million kw; the power transported from Inner Mongolia
network to Beijing is increased from 0.93 million kw to 1.3
million kw; the linking line from Shanxi network to Beijing can
transport power of 0.5 million kw in rush hours.
One of the reasons for the intense production load and power
demand in the middle of July is the joint influence of fast
growth in industrial consumption load in southeast costal areas,
due to fine situation of national industrial production and
fixed investment in the middle of July, and the fast growth in
consumption load for sunstroke prevention caused by persistent
high temperature in July. The second reason is the inadequate
capability of power distribution network, circuit failures and
serious blockade, which is also the cause for limitation on
power usage in rush hours. Third, lack in effective measures to
eliminate the gap between crest and trough is one of reasons for
short power supply in rush hours. Another reason is failure in
generating units intensifies the situation of short power supply
in one or two regions.
Because before summer electric power departments of various
levels comprehensively analyze the security situation of the
electric networks and improve the veracity of load prediction;
properly arrange the examination and repair of generator units
and push the production of new equipments; strengthen the patrol
and the maintenance of equipments in operation to secure the
full function of the equipments in high temperature; carry out
duty system and rush repair in flood prevention and therefore
ensure the stable operation of major electric networks in
national persistent high temperature. There are not accidents of
large-scale power cut due to destroyed stableness of network and
system disintegration, and the days with specially high power
load are spent without any disturbances.
6. Impact of Power Price on Power Demand
Under market conditions, the impact of power price on power
demand becomes increasingly more obvious. The main influences
are on the power consumption of enterprises and the regional
distribution of highly power- consuming products. In the 90¡¯s,
the general power price for end users takes a rising looking,
but ever since the new century, it is declining rapidly due to
the performance of some measures like transformation of rural
electric networks.
Ever since 1998, 500 kinds of improper charges have been
abolished from power price through price adjustment and electric
network transformation, enabling the power price in cities to
decrease from 0.47 Yuan/kwh to 0.42 Yuan/kwh, decreased by 0.05
Yuan/kwh, and price in rural areas from 0.67 Yuan/kwh to 0.57
Yuan/kwh, decreased by 0.1 Yuan/kwh. The average power price is
about 0.40 Yuan/kwh for urban residents in inner areas, 0.5
Yuan/kwh for rural resident while price in coastal areas is
usually higher by 0.15-0.20 Yuan/kwh than that in inner areas.
In the first half of year 2002, another batch of provinces carry
out power price reduction. Thereinto the urban power price in
Guangdong is reduced from 0.75 Yuan/kwh to 0.49 Yuan/kwh, the
rural price from 0.675 Yuan/kwh to 0.4 Yuan/kwh; the price in
Shanghai is reduced from 0.67 Yuan/kwh to 0.61 Yuan/kwh; the
price in He¡¯nan is reduced from 0.85 Yuan/kwh to 0.69 Yuan/kwh.
(Details as the table)
Due to price reduction, the growth rate in power consumption in
Guandong rises up again from 10.9% in year 2001 to 12.5% this
year. The growth rate in power consumption in rural areas is
faster, and it is 38.9% in country of Guangzhou, 15%-20% in the
country of Tianjin compared with that in the same period of last
year.
With the performance of separation of power stations from
electric networks and price competition to get in the network,
the improvement of operation efficiency in the power stations
and the reduction in coal consumption for power generation from
385g/kwh last year to 381g/kwh now, the average network power
price in power stations is declining. The reduction in line loss
per unit from 7.40% last year to 7.24% now due to transformation
of electric networks in the first half year will cause further
reduction in power price.
Besides, the central and local governments carry out favourable
power price to some large industries and highly power-consuming
industries. For example, to highly power-consuming products and
products like electrolytic aluminum and ferrosilicon, the state
will remove the price differential on different voltage grades
and improve proportion of basic price through structural
adjustment to power price; try to lower and exempt some taxation
items; reduce the price level for enterprises with a annual
production capability over 40,000 tons; make discounts to the
new growth in power consumption of industrial customers, the
discount extent jointly determined by customers and power
stations; enable the customers of ferroalloy enterprises to
determine the price according to either their utmost demand or
the transformer¡¯s capability. Another example is Hunan province
rules that highly power-consuming enterprises will get a
preferential price of 10% lower than current price in
rain-abundant season (from April to July). The practice of these
measures will further reduce the power price for end user and
therefore further impel the rise in power consumption in China.
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